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According to documents released by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Buffett ‘s Berkshire Hathaway sold Bank of New York Mellon’s share worth of more than US$30 million on Tuesday and Wednesday. Before the US stock market slump in early March, Buffett increased his holding of the Bank's shares by US$359 million.
  In view of BNY Mellon's stock price trend, Buffett had sold the shares at a loss. As Berkshire Hathaway's 11th largest stock holding, BNY Mellon's stock fell 25.7% during the year, rendering Buffett more than US$1 billion of loss so far.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  Data shows that year to date, Buffett ‘s Berkshire Hathaway has lost US$46.5 billion(equivalence of ¥325.5 billion), or 19% of the company's total stock positions. Among Berkshire Hathaway's stock holdings, Bank of America, Wells Fargo Bank, Apple, American Express, United Bank of America, Delta Air Lines, Coca-Cola, JPMorgan Chase, United Airlines, Kraft Heinz and BNY Mellon all saw losses of over US$ 1 billion, with over US$ 6 billion of loss in the company’s no.1 holding Apple. Only less than 10 companies' shares, including Moody s, Amazon, Costco, Biogene, and Teva Pharmaceuticals, had been profitable.
A Societe Generale study of bear markets since 1870 showed that the current bear-market rally is a departure from history. Andrew Lapthorne, the firm's head of quant strategy, concluded that investors are taking an early victory lap for the economy even after accounting for trillions in stimulus spending. He expects the stock market to end the year roughly 7% lower than current levels. Click here for more BI Prime stories.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  April was the best month for stocks since 1987. But this stand-out performance is not being universally cheered on Wall Street. The S&P 500's 13% ascent last month can be traced back to its bottom on March 23 — the same day the Federal Reserve essentially pledged to do whatever it takes to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Even with this stimulus in action, investors declared an early victory for an economy that must still crawl out of its worst contraction in many decades, according to Andrew Lapthorne, the head of quantitative strategy at Societe Generale. He drew this conclusion by studying a 150-year history of bear markets, defined as a 20% decline from recent highs. “Beware of the oddity in this bear rally,” Lapthorne said in a recent note to clients.
  He added: “With the fallout from the complete shutdown of economic life in terms of disruptions in supply chains and collapse of aggregate demand, as well as the uncertainty on the post-lockdown path to recovery, new market bottoms are possible, although the unprecedented massive policy response could provide the backstop to a worsening case of deflationary spiral.”His study of bear markets since 1870 led him to conclude that the S&P 500 would finish the year at about 2,715, representing a 7% decline from its April close.Both the crash and recovery are abnormalLapthorne's analysis started by including episodes since 1870 when the S&P 500's decline could ostensibly have been rounded up to 20%. One recent example was the late-2018 sell-off that winded up as a 19.6% decline.But because the 2020 drop has been a different beast in terms of its speed, comparing it to every bear market was not empirically ideal.
  And so he filtered for severe bear markets, defined as drawdowns of at least 30%, to make them comparable to this one. The roster of 15 meltdowns includes infamous sell-offs like the crash of 1929, Black Monday, and the dotcom bust. He found that on average, the S&P 500 recovered by 4% within a month, 13% within three months, and 27% within a year. The typical trajectory of recoveries is similar even when the Great Depression, often likened to the coronavirus crisis, is included.By comparison, stocks have leapt more than 30% from their bottom in March.
According to Reuters' calculations and the latest data released by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative dollar net short positions have increased to the highest level in the past two years in last week; as of the week ending April 21st, USD net short positions totaled US$11.51 billion. Net short positions of the previous week reached US$ 11.39 billion. Reuters calculation of total USD net position in the Chicago International Monetary Market is based on the net positions of six major currencies: Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  Under the impact of the epidemic, the Fed has continuously launched several rounds of quantitative easing that exceeded market expectations, almost exhausting all conventional and unconventional policy ammunition available. As of now, the Fed has reduced interest rates to zero to inject liquidity into various markets. Investors will still pay close attention to the Fed s outlook on the current economy and whether it will give hints on the introduction of negative interest rates in the future.
The brisk rally of 2020 cannot be divorced from the record amount of government stimulus that flowed into the economy. On this account, Lapthorne said the market's roaring comeback is reasonable.He inserted one more caveat into his analysis: 150 years is perhaps too long a timeframe for analyzing the recent bear market. The forces that drive stocks and the economy have evolved over the last century and a half, and so it's possible to slide into the error of comparing apples with oranges.
  For this reason, Lapthorne averaged the three most recent severe crashes — in 1987, 2000, and 2008 — and then compared them to the rest of his timeframe. He still found that the post-crisis recoveries were similar to the preceding episodes, leaving 2020 as the odd one out.Lapthorne's grand conclusion is that history is rife with many examples of bear rallies that give way to even deeper losses. He left clients with three recommendations: stay hedged with defensive assets, beware of momentum stocks that are sensitive to broader market moves, and be well-positioned for a rally in undervalued stocks.
Recently, the Hong Kong dollar's strong momentum has drawn special attention from the market. The USD/HKD has hit the strong-side convertibility undertaking of 7.75 several times and hovers around this level, which led to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's intervention on several occasions.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  Views attributed this to the fact that mainland China and Hong Kong, being the first to effectively contain the virus amid global pandemic, may become "safe havens"that continue to attract international capital flow. But the most convincing argument is the situation of interest rate market. Previously, as the Hong Kong dollar interest rate was significantly lower than the US dollar, traders conducted carry trade by funding US dollar-denominated assets with Hong Kong dollar. But in facing narrowing spreads and asset sell-off, carry traders will be forced to close their positions and in order to do so, they need to buy Hong Kong dollars in the spot market. It's expected that HKMA will continue to implement moderate intervention to stabilize the financial market.
  Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system requires the Hong Kong dollar to be pegged to the US dollar within a certain range. Since 2005, the HKMA has adopted a strong-side convertibility undertaking of 7.75 and a weak-side convertibility undertaking of 7.85; once HKD/USD exchange rate reach the given range, market intervention will be delivered through buying or selling US dollar.
This story was delivered to Business Insider Intelligence Banking Briefing subscribers earlier this morning.To get this story plus others to your inbox each day, hours before they're published on Business Insider, click here.Stay up-to-date with our latest coverage on the impacts of coronavirus on technology, marketing, and the digital economy here.The US personal savings rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) increased to 13.1% in March, up from 8% in February, according a study from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Consumers put $2.17 trillion into savings, marking the highest rate since 1981.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  Spending fell 7.5% in March, as consumers “canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending,” per BEA, due to social distancing measures related to the coronavirus pandemic. The personal savings rate has been rising the past couple of years as people likely anticipated a recession — and this rate will likely increase further as consumers continue to social distance and receive their stimulus checks. This shift in consumer spending and saving patterns gives banks and neobanks alike the opportunity to highlight their savings accounts and tools.Neobanks can aggressively market their high-yield savings accounts. In recent years, lowering interest rates have contributed to consumer dissatisfaction with savings accounts from incumbent banks. Digital-only banks have stepped in to fill the gap, and high-yield savings accounts are now one of their main selling points: For example, compared with the national average of 0.07% annual percentage yield (APY), Goldman Sachs' digital-only offshoot Marcus offers a savings accounts with a 1.55% APY, and neobanks like Chime and N26 offer above-average APYs too.Though the Fed slashing interest rates to zero toward the start of the coronavirus crisis took some wind out of their sails in terms of the APYs they're offering, neobanks should still look to increase awareness of their high-yield savings account offerings. Some consumers may be looking for ways to maximize their newfound savings, and promoting the benefits of their offerings via marketing campaigns could pay off for neobanks in increased signups and deposits — especially if continued social distancing means that consumers will continue saving more.Big banks can introduce customers to their personal finance management (PFM) features. With savings on the rise, there could be an increased appetite among consumers for tools that help them manage their money and put their savings to good use. Consumers largely want these tools through their banking channels: Over 75% of respondents to an RFi study said they would prefer to use PFM tools from their primary financial services provider — typically a bank — while just 6% said they'd prefer PFM tools from fintechs or neobanks.This makes it an ideal time for banks to increase awareness around their available tools, such as by prompting customers with the tools when they get a deposit or move money into savings. By increasing adoption of these tools, banks could encourage the formation of savings habits that will last beyond the current crisis: Chase, for example, offers Autosave, a digital feature that allows customers to set a savings goal as well as the frequency and amount they'd like to contribute to that goal. Banks should streamline their digital account opening processes in response to the higher personal savings rate. As consumers shelter in place and banks close branches or modify hours, the majority of banking services are being offered remotely, which means consumers looking to open a new savings account likely must do so digitally.Even prior to the pandemic, digital account opening was in demand: 58% of mobile banking users who responded to Business Insider Intelligence's US Mobile Banking Competitive Edge Study 2019 (enterprise only) called the ability to open a new savings account in a mobile banking app “extremely” or “very” valuable. Chase, for example, saw over 2 million accounts opened digitally in 2019, and that number could be higher this year.To avoid discouraging any customer who is interested in opening a savings account during this time, banks should ensure that digital account opening processes are available, reliable, and easy to use — otherwise they could miss out on a potential silver lining of the coronavirus crisis.
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The European Commission on Tuesday started a process that could lead to reforms of drug manufacturing to limit shortages of vaccines and antibiotics and make medicines more easily available.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  The move comes as the European Union continues to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, an effort that has exposed some healthcare shortcomings and the bloc's dependence on foreign supplies of essential drugs and chemicals, mostly from India and China.
  “The unprecedented coronavirus pandemic clearly demonstrates the need to modernise the way the EU ensures access to medicines for its population,” an EU Commission document said on Tuesday, listing shortages and unequal access to medicines as the main issues to address.
  The document seeks feedback from the public on possible reforms of rules on clinical trials, marketing of medicines and their production and distribution in Europe.
  The 27-nation bloc has long experienced shortages of medicines, and the COVID-19 crisis worsened its predicament as global supply chains were disrupted while supplier countries temporarily curbed exports of some drugs.
  Antibiotics, cancer medicines and vaccines are cited in the document as essential items which are often in short supply in Europe, a problem likely to worsen as the bloc has insufficient lab capacity to produce the huge amounts of vaccine doses that will be needed if a COVID-19 shot is developed.
  The overhaul, whose details are due by the end of the year, will review incentives and requirements for pharmaceutical companies to place new drugs on the market and ensure their supply. Brussels proposed last week a budget of 9.4 billion euros ($10.5 billion) until 2027 to underpin these reforms [nL8N2D9444].
  Among possible changes, information on medicines could be increasingly provided online or on multilingual packs to address bottlenecks in their distribution. The EU could also try to curb differences in drug prices, which are set at national level.
Equities ended another day on a happy note with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing 1.05, 0.82 and 0.59 percent higher, respectively. The buoyancy was reflected in FX and commodity markets with AUD and NZD having surged in some cases over one percent with WTI clocking in 4.03 percent gains. The anti-risk Japanese Yen was hammered along with the haven-linked US Dollar and Treasury bonds.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  Market participants shrugged at unrest in the US, where struggling economic activity amid the Covid-19 pandemic has been hampered further by state-enforced curfews responding to looting and vandalism. This is against the backdrop of protests and riots following the killing of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis.
  Traders may be operating on the market-friendly narrative that easing lockdown measures will lead to a speedy recovery despite Depression-era high unemployment. This in turn is helping to push cycle-sensitive assets higher.
  Wednesdays Asia-Pacific Trading Session
  Wall Streets rosy session may ring into Asia and help support APAC stocks and growth-oriented currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Higher-beta FX – particularly those tied to emerging market economies – may benefit from resilient risk appetite. Credit markets may continue to show signs of easing as spreads on credit default swaps on sovereign bond yields in Asia – apart from a few – continue to narrow.
  With another relatively-light data docket, the primary focus will likely be another Australian-based event, only this time instead of the RBA – like yesterday – today will focus on Q1 GDP statistics. The commodity-exporter country has managed to avoid a recession for almost 30 years – even dodging one in 2008. However, the current geopolitical and economic terrain may now be too rough to traverse unscathed.
  AUD/JPY Technical Analysis
  In the past 24 hours, AUD/JPY has surged 2.30 percent, adding onto its remarkable 20 percent recovery after bottoming out at 62.41. The pair continues to climb above a steep uptrend and is coming close to retesting a multi-month resistance range between 75.925 and 76.320 where the pair had previously stalled. Cracking that ceiling opens the door to testing the lower tier of the 77.736-79.843 range.
A marriage of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is close to a deal that would extend their overall production cuts through Sept. 1, as ease on lockdown commences.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies are also debating whether to move up its planned conference call to discuss future output cuts to Thursday, instead of June 9 and 10.
  The 23-country group, known as OPEC-plus, agreed to cut productions by 9.7 million barrels a day, following a sharp decline in global oil demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
  While the current agreement foresees the curbs easing to 8 million barrels a day between July 1 and the end of the year, OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is pushing for a deal that would keep the current restrictions of 9.7 million daily barrels, according to delegates in the cartel.
  Saudi Arabia, which needs oil prices at $84 a barrel to cover its spending, wants to keep pushing prices above current levels of around $35 a barrel, however, Russia would be satisfied with prices at around $40 a barrel, and its delegates believe the demand for oil is moving faster than expected as areas in China, Europe and the U.S. relax the lockdown restrictions that have hurt oil demand.
  US crude imports surge as Saudi oil ‘armada’ arrives Supplies to US jump by almost 1m barrels a day while domestic production slumps Saudi Arabia launched 33 very large crude carriers destined for the US during March and April 28 2020 21.
  US oil imports went up last week, based on my projections, trading at $35 a barrel with almost half of the extra crude arriving from Saudi Arabia, as foreign producers took market share from the struggling American shale patch.
  The federal Energy Information Administration on Thursday said Saudi supplies to the US jumped almost 1m barrels a day during the week ending May 22, to 1.6m b/d, while commercial imports from all countries soared to 7.2m b/d, almost 40 per cent more than the week before.
  The EIA said output dropped to 11.4m b/d in the week ending May 22. Many analysts say production has already fallen to as low as 10m b/d, compared with 13m b/d earlier this year.
  Last month, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, traded below zero for the first time in history, sending shockwaves through a shale patch where producers need almost $50 a barrel to make a profit. WTI was up at about $33.72 on Thursday evening.
  The crash has dented hopes that the US could establish self-sufficiency in oil supply.
  President Donald Trump has repeatedly lauded the USs “energy independence”. But net petroleum imports rose again last week to 1.2m b/d, according to the EIA, well above the level a year ago.
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